Let's assume that you are well into your Hold'em Tournament, and approximately half of the players in the Tourney are already finished. You had been doing well in early rounds, but overall, your chip stack has not grown much of late. You are in Seat 9 on table with only 7 players remaining. You have been dealt a pair of fours, and the players ahead of you (Seats numbers 7 and 8) have both called the 500-chip big blind. Given this scenario, should you fold, call the bet, or raise the bet ?
Keep in mind that a pair of pocket fours has a win rate of approximately 8.3 %, and is ranked as the 61st strongest pocket hand, out of the 169 possible pocket hands in Hold'em. Moreover, a pair of fours is the eleventh ranked two-card hand. These statistical probabilities should tell you right off the bat,
that you are playing with a weak hand. Realistically speaking, the only way that this hand could materialize into something worthwhile, is if you catch a third four on the flop, the odds of which are decidedly against you at this point. Additionally, the blinds are pretty high right now, so it will be quite expensive for you to try and chase that third four. Hence, this type of hand has failure written all over it.
Of course, the blinds are becoming increasingly large, to the point that if you do not catch a hand, their cost is quite painful. Nevertheless, the pair of fours in this position is not a hand worth playing. Always resist the temptation to play a low pair with this many opponents, while in this position. Besides, if you
decide to call the bet, the players following you in the betting could decide to raise the bet, or even go all in, after your call. If that happened, then you would be faced with yet another decision of calling those raised bets. At this point, fold your hand, preserve your capital, and wait for a better hand.
Douglas Hayman, President of the renown Expert Software Systems company, is a poker buff and student, who has developed many informational poker websites, which include the following:
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